The Climate Deniers vs The Consensus

Climate Skeptics vs Climate Consensus

A visual map of the arguments for and against human-caused global climate change.

I’m fascinated by climate deniers. How could anyone deny the climate change is happening?
What evidence is there? Surely it’s unambiguous?

Curious, I investigated the key statements made by climate denialists and sought out the counter-views, as presented by climate research scientists. The result is this image.

(This a new and updated version of the spread on Climate Skepticism from my book The Visual Miscellaneum)

Method

I researched this subject in a very particular way. I deliberately chose not speak directly to any climate experts or leading scientists in the field. I used only publicly available web sources.

Why? Because I wanted to simulate what it’s like for people trying to learn about climate change online.

My conclusion is “what a nightmare”. I was generally shocked and appalled by how difficult it was to source counter arguments. The data was often tucked away on extremely ancient or byzantine websites. The key counter arguments I often found, 16 scrolls down, on comment 342 on a far flung realclimate.org post from three years ago. And even when I found an answer, the answers were excessively jargonized or technical.

Most of the info for this image is sourced from Realclimate.org. It’s an amazing blog staffed tirelessly by some of the world’s leading climatologists.

Unfortunately, the majority of the writing on there is so scientific and so technical, it makes the website nigh on useless to the casual, curious reader.

This has got to be one of the reasons why scientists and leaders are struggling to convince sections of the populace that the threat of climate change is real. Because they’re doing such a terrible job explaining it.

(Saying all that, I would like to express my gratitude to Gavin A Schmidt, one of unsung heroes of the web IMHO. His sterling and patient replies to comments, on RealClimate.org in understandable English, have really helped this process.)

Runaway Feedback

This image was a mammoth undertaking, especially for someone like me, unschooled in climate science. So I appreciate your understanding if any errors have crept into the process. If you spot any, please get in touch and I’ll will correct them on the double.

In every case, wherever possible, I went back the original data. (I’ve included a ZIP of all the data I’ve collected plus a spreadsheet of all the sources). And all the graphs in the image are generated from the original temperature records and other data sources. Feel free to rifle through and check everything.

RealClimate.org are (now) keeping an archive of all the data – if you want even more!
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

UPDATE 1 (12th Dec 09): There have been a few complaints about the legibility of the image. So I’ve created a version on white instead of black.


Posted in Climate, Comparison Chart, Data Visualisation, Environment, Political, Skeptics vs Believers, The Visual Miscellaneum, Visual Journalism, X vs Y.
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217 Comments

  1. tobywhc
    Posted February 18, 2010 at 5:16 am | Permalink | Edit

    On the section about CO2 rise after temperature rise, the global warming cycles are 5000 year in words or 50000 years long in the figure?

  2. Posted February 21, 2010 at 6:45 pm | Permalink | Edit

    volcanic thus rise scientific year [url=http://www.esoteric.msu.edu]potential vectors action human ruddiman[/url] http://www.yorkpa.org

  3. Tom
    Posted February 25, 2010 at 2:37 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I commend you for this. I shared it out, but here’s what I posted to my friends:
    After reading the whole “he said/she said” I came to what might be an odd conclusion: they prove each others points.
    Proponents aren’t clear in their message, and this allows the critics to point out flaws. Issue remains murky.

    Again, I commend you for the effort. The “two sides” aren’t even talking to the same points, leading to a very murky, ugly, fight. The proponents need to get it together, as the IPCC report showed.

  4. L Skinner
    Posted February 26, 2010 at 4:35 am | Permalink | Edit

    Thankyou. What a great effort. I really appreciate the effort and the wonderful result

  5. Paul Redfern
    Posted February 26, 2010 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I’m with the consensus overall on climate change. That said, I do have a real problem with ‘deniers’ being used as a synonym for ‘sceptics’ (or even ‘skeptics’) in these debates. The use of the term ‘deniers’ in this context is a crudely provocative attempt to tar climate change sceptics with the same brush as Holocaust deniers. Although you do use ‘sceptics’ in your body headings, ‘deniers’ is present in the head of the document. I know a lot of sceptics are nutters, but there are some genuine sceptics out there too, and to characterise them as ‘deniers’ doesn’t help advance the arguments one bit.

  6. Kathrine O'Leery
    Posted March 1, 2010 at 9:33 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I echo Paul. Just because someone might be a tad bit skeptical doesn’t make them a flat-out denier. I also agree with the article, the scientists are doing a horrible job explaining it.

    How is it that snow proves global warming… and no snow proves global warming?
    How is it mudslides proves global warming… and no mudslides proves global warming?
    Explain why increased hurricanes proves global warming as well as decreased hurricanes proves global warming?
    Hot summer? Global warming! Cool summer? Global warming! Wind’s blowing? Global warming! Not blowing? Global warming!

    Doesn’t exactly scream ‘HEY, I’m REAL!’ — it sounds more like a school-yard game of ‘make up the rules as you go’ where you tack on rules when things aren’t going your way.

    So yeah, where as deniers are skeptics… not all skeptics are deniers. Some are actually willing to wait and hear out this phenomenon of ‘both ways equal proof’ but instead of having it explained in rational terms, we’re told ‘You’re just a stupid denier. You’ll never understand so I’m not going to waste my brain power to try to speak it in such simpleton terms.’ Again, doesn’t exactly scream ‘Hey, I’m REAL’ as much as it does ‘BELIEVE IN IT OR ELSE.’

  7. Martin
    Posted March 14, 2010 at 12:50 pm | Permalink | Edit

    This article exactly reflects my own feelings when I tried to research the topic for a presentation! The internet is a terrible place to try and research controversial topics like this.

    People with no experience or real understanding of the matter air their views in exactly the same ways those who have worked in the field for years. It is impossible to sift through thousands of pages, checking sources and comparing to find out who knows what they are talking about.

    Eventually my presentation was a disaster. I had no confidence in what I said. I should have given this image and talked about the difficulties I encountered instead!

  8. tony
    Posted March 23, 2010 at 1:57 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Note how throughout this “visualization,” the points on the left are countered by the points on the right. this is not an assessment of the positions taken by either side, this is a softball hit off of a tee by the creator. just asking questions and then presenting their own dogma as answers. nice try. epic fail.

  9. Neal Wooler
    Posted April 5, 2010 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Edit

    I like what you’ve done. I found it absorbing and compelling. I have found that the internet can be a frustrating research tool – but I think your work will prove significant in moving people away from political dogma and towards fact-based decision making.

    Thank you very much for this – please keep going.

  10. Alex Reid
    Posted April 5, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Great graph. My only problem is the use of the term ‘skeptics’. In a sense all (good) scientists are skeptics – they have to be as part of the self improving and recursive process of science. Skepticism is a good thing and this graph makes it sound a bit like a dirty word. The word you are looking for is denial (or ‘deniers’) those are the people on the left of the graph!

  11. Posted April 6, 2010 at 1:15 am | Permalink | Edit

    Was usefull one, thank you

  12. Nils
    Posted April 17, 2010 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Edit

    Thank you so much! I have been very unsure of what my opinion about the climate change should be, now I can read this and decide for my own. Of course I will check your sources as well.

  13. Erica
    Posted April 19, 2010 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Edit

    My only objection to this image is that both sides are given equal space, suggesting that there are as many “skeptics” who are legitimate scientists as there are on the consensus side. A better representation would have devoted 5% of the page space to the TINY minority of scientists with PhDs in relevant fields who question the fundamental conclusions of the IPCC, and the remaining 95% of the page space to the thousands of experts who feed into the IPCC reports. The way it is now looks as if the scientific community is equally or close-to-equally divided – a dangerous myth that muddies public understanding.

  14. Tom Adams
    Posted May 11, 2010 at 9:19 pm | Permalink | Edit

    A great effort. Well presented. Publishing people’s comments also helps highlight possible drawbacks in your presentation. This all helps continue the debate. I am a teacher and have found this resource most useful.

  15. Alan Falk
    Posted May 27, 2010 at 7:44 pm | Permalink | Edit

    i particularly enjoy looking at whether the sources of “data” have an axe to grind… and particularly appreciate finding some that don’t seem to.

    http://rps3.com/Pages/Burt_Rutan_on_Climate_Change.htm offers some very interesting reading for those open-minded enough to read ‘em.

    of course, some Warmites as well as some Skeptics come at this from “religious” standpoints, and no data from ANYONE in disagreement is acceptable or believable.

    it’s been fun watching. enjoy the link.

  16. Praveen
    Posted June 13, 2010 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Edit

    this is a BRAIN TWISTING effort. OMG!!!
    Its commendable to even think of coming up with a INFOGRAPHIC for the much contested issue of climate change.

    I guess I’ll try to apply your technique to something as knotty as
    Israel – Palestine.
    Unrest in Middle East.
    Non-Proliferation Treaty
    Indo – US Nuclear Deal

    thanks for the demonstration!!!

  17. Petra Liverani
    Posted June 24, 2010 at 8:41 am | Permalink | Edit

    The website http://www.skepticalscience.com shows many “skeptical” arguments with their warmist counters very succinctly and removes all offensive posts from the Comments which is good.

20 Trackbacks

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